Archive for the ‘Export Data’ Category

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An Economist’s View: Using Trade Data to Predict the Final Four

April 4, 2014

Natalie Soroka is an economist in the International Trade Administration’s Office of Trade and Economic Analysis. She spends more time focusing on international trade statistics and trends than on basketball…

Economist Natalie Soroka used trade data and an unorthodox equation to predict the winner of the Final Four. Her prediction is Wisconsin beating Florida.

Economist Natalie Soroka used trade data and an unorthodox equation to predict the winner of the Final Four.

The emotional whirlwind of March Madness is nearing a close, with the Final Four teams getting ready to face off this Saturday. Brackets have been busted, face paint smeared with tears, hearts have been broken, and our Cinderellas have turned into pumpkins, but it’s not over yet!

Who will be victorious? Is there anything in the trade data that can give us a clue? Let’s give it a try, shall we?

Methodology:

One can reason that there are several aspects (“variables”, if you will) that can help a team attain the title of national champion:

  • skills or talent,
  • nutrition to keep players healthy,
  • healthcare and medicine to take care of injuries, and
  • supplies for actually playing the game.

In other words, to be a little “mathy” about it (just bear with me):

Winning = ƒ(skills, nutrition, healthcare, supplies) + ε

Translation: Winning is a function of the variables listed above, plus that little “ε” at the end, which would be the error term indicating that there are various things we aren’t able to account for (Mercer, anyone?).

So if we were to try and look at these four variables in an extremely simple analysis, using the very same publicly available data we use to counsel U.S. exporters, can we predict a winner?

 

Skills and Talent:

We may not have data readily available on “skill” or “talent,” but as these players are all represent educational institutions, we can assume that the state’s educational services industry plays a role.

Among the four states represented in the Final Four, Florida has the largest educational services industry by far, amounting to nearly $8 billion in 2012, topping Connecticut’s respectable $4.7 billion. On the Midwest/West side, Wisconsin’s $2.7 billion educational services industry tops Kentucky’s $1.1 billion.

But what about exports? After all, we are the International Trade Administration. The Institute of International Education collects information on foreign students hosted by U.S. universities, which can be used as a proxy for higher education exports. While not all players are international students, one could reason that a school (or state) that has international appeal is also one that would be able to pull the best talent.

Using the IIE’s data (which we also highlighted in a blog post last week), the University of Florida tops the list with 5,961 foreign students. The University of Wisconsin again has the upper hand over Kentucky here, with 5,291 international students. Finally, we can take into account each university’s seed at the beginning of the tournament as an indicator of the team’s record and other skills not captured above. Who comes out on top?

Winners:

University of Florida v. University of Connecticut: Florida

University of Wisconsin v. University of Kentucky: Wisconsin     

Nutrition:

Healthy eating makes for healthy people and athletes. Looking at state import data, Florida tops the list for its imports of products such as meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, and grains. However, isn’t Wisconsin in the Midwest, the home of those “amber waves of grain”? In fact, with its $4.5 billion farming industry in 2011, Wisconsin does come out on top among these states, followed by Florida, Kentucky, and Connecticut.

Finally, we can take a look at who imports the most processed foods, the “bad guy” du jour when it comes to health. Despite being known for its citrus fruits and water springs, Florida blows its competitors out of the water with $1.9 billion in processed foods imports in 2013, worsening its overall nutrition rating. Instead, Kentucky comes out on top with only $233 million of processed foods imports.

So who wins the “healthiness” battle? Looks like those amber waves really help.

Winners:             

University of Florida v. University of Connecticut: Florida

University of Wisconsin v. University of Kentucky: Wisconsin     

Healthcare:

As we’ve all seen, injuries sadly do occur. When these unfortunate events take place, good healthcare services and medical supplies are necessary to fix up young players and get them back on the court.

Again, we see Florida rising to the top over Connecticut with its $67.5 billion healthcare services industry in 2012, and Wisconsin topping Kentucky at $23.5 billion. With regards to medical supplies, Kentucky tops the rest of these states when it comes to imports of pharmaceutical products, with $4.6 billion of imports in 2013. However, for medical and surgical instruments, Florida again tops the list with nearly $2.3 billion of imports in 2013, followed by Wisconsin’s $1.5 billion of imports.

Overall, Florida wins on healthcare, driven by its large industry and imports of medical instruments.

Winners:             

University of Florida v. University of Connecticut: Florida

University of Wisconsin v. University of Kentucky: Wisconsin     

Sports Supplies:

What good is a basketball team if there’s no basketball to dunk?

Kentucky topped these states when it comes to imports of inflatable balls (including basketballs), at $35 million in 2013. As for other supplies, Wisconsin rose to the top in imports of athletic footwear, coming in at $70 million in 2013.

Finally, to keep the athletes in shape off the court, Wisconsin again topped the list with $105 million in imports of general gym equipment, pushing the state to the top of this category.

Winners:             

University of Florida v. University of Connecticut: Florida

University of Wisconsin v. University of Kentucky: Wisconsin     

So where does that leave us? If we average out the “scores” for each state/team, we wind up with one state’s economy pushing its team to the top:

University of Wisconsin (Go Badgers!)

However, if my personal bracket is any indication, that “little ‘ε’” isn’t quite so little, so you may be best off just throwing a dart and picking one at random. Generating purely random scores for the Final Four teams, we wind up with (……drumroll…….):

University of Florida (Yay Gators!)

Using random selection, Natalie's bracket points to Florida beating Kentucky in the championship.

How will this analysis fare? Will data help the Badgers win the day, or is the championship at the mercy of the court gods? I suppose there’s only one way to find out.

Enjoy the games!

 

No economists were harmed during the creation of this off-the-cuff and highly spurious analysis. The author drew on extensive basketball experience gained from middle-school gym class, casual sports viewership, and years of practice using the esteemed “mascot method” of bracket picking.

Domestic production data is the latest available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Regional Economic Accounts. State import data was retrieved from ITA’s TradeStats Express platform: http://tse.export.gov/stateimports.

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U.S. Automotive Industry Driving Exports

March 28, 2014

Eduard Roytberg is a Senior International Trade Specialist at the International Trade Administration’s Export Assistance Center in Ontario, California. He is the leader of ITA’s Commercial Service Global Automotive Team.File photo of workers building a car.

The U.S. Commercial Service’s auto team is dedicated to increasing U.S. automotive exports and supporting American automotive manufacturers doing business around the world. The automotive industry is crucial to the American economy as one of the largest employers and manufactured goods export sectors.

We’re happy to report that 2013 was an excellent year for the industry! Here are some highlights:

It’s clear this industry is running on all cylinders! We expect continued success for American businesses in this sector, so contact your nearest Export Assistance Center if you’re ready to bring your automotive products into the global market.

Our Global Automotive Team has specialists throughout the country and at US Embassies and Consulates in 72 countries. We are ready to help your company achieve its export goals.

Be sure to follow our team on Twitter @cs_autoteam to learn more about our automotive industry initiatives, upcoming events and other updates.

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Another Year, Another Export Record

February 6, 2014

Ken Hyatt is the Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade. Mark Doms is the Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affair

Data from the Department of Commerce show that total annual US exports have increased by 44 percent since 2009.

2013 U.S. exports totaled $2.3 trillion, a record amount.

Four years ago, President Obama made export promotion a national priority, launching the National Export Initiative to renew and revitalize American exports.

That initiative is working.

Today, the Department of Commerce announced that for the fourth year in a row, the United States has set a record for annual exports. Total U.S. exports for 2013 reached $2.3 trillion.

There were record highs in both goods and services exports. Goods exports totaled $1.58 trillion, with records in a number of important sectors, including industrial supplies, consumer goods, and capital goods.

Service exports hit an all-time high of $682 billion, with records in several major service sectors. Travel and tourism was one record sector, as international visitors contributed $139.6 billion to the American economy.

Mexico was a particularly bright spot for U.S. exporters, as we saw a 4.7 percent increase to $226 billion in exports to our southern neighbor. Commerce Secretary Pritzker is currently leading a business development mission in Mexico, helping even more American companies find new opportunities and qualified business partners in one of our most important export markets.

More important than the numbers we released today, though, is what lies behind them.

More and more businesses are exporting, which is leading to growth and innovation.  More and more jobs are supported by exports – nearly 10 million jobs according to the latest data. That’s an increase of 1.3 million jobs since President Obama launched the National Export Initiative in 2010.

We are looking forward to American companies finding new success in the global marketplace in 2014 – expanding to new markets and reaching more customers. This time next year, we want to announce a fifth U.S. export record, more jobs supported by trade, and continued economic recovery here at home.

Keep up with us on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook as we share highlights from today’s data release. You can find the full data report here.

Make sure to check back in on Feb. 11, when we’ll highlight how states across the country also saw record exports in 2013.

You can read Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker’s statement on the data here.

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Secretary Pritzker Highlights Strong Economic Partnership Between USA and Canada

January 22, 2014

Data from the Department of Commerce show trade in goods with Canada has tripled since 1990.This post originally appeared on the Department of Commerce blog.

Today, Secretary Penny Pritzker and Canada’s International Trade Minister Edward Fast spoke about the future of the U.S.-Canadian economic relationship at a luncheon hosted by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The United States and Canada share a long-standing partnership based on history, geography, and the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship. It is the biggest bilateral trade relationship in the world with more than $1 million in trade crossing our border every minute.

In 2011, President Obama and Prime Minister Harper announced the U.S.-Canada Beyond the Border Action Plan and the U.S.-Canada Regulatory Cooperation Council, with initiatives aimed at enhancing economic competitiveness. Canada is the United States’ largest trading partner – and vice versa. With more than $700 billion in two-way trade of goods and services annually and more than $600 billion in direct investment on both sides of the border, millions of jobs in each country depend on shared economic competitiveness. Canada is the number one export market for 36 of our 50 states and is among one of the top five export markets for another ten states.

Those stats reflect the threefold growth of trade in goods since 1990. The total value of goods traded between Canada and the United States in 1990 was $174 billion. By 2012, that had grown to more than $600 billion. Top exports to Canada include transportation equipment, machinery, chemicals, computers and electronics products and food products. The Department of Commerce has been working hard to ensure that number continues to climb.

What’s clear is that the two countries don’t just trade with each other, they build things together.  In addition to aerospace, the auto supply chains are intertwined. Automotive components often cross the border many times before a final product is ready to be sold. In addition, investors pour hundreds of billions of dollars into both economies to build new facilities and to create new jobs. Literally millions of people in both countries rely on the trade and investment relationship for their livelihoods.

On a broader level, the competitiveness of the two countries is becoming more and more tied to the competitiveness of the entire North American region. Canada, Mexico, and the United States are working together to grow the trilateral relationship.  They have pledged to continue helping businesses grow and workers succeed through enhanced regulatory cooperation, and coordinated efforts to facilitate increased trade through many initiatives, including the ongoing Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. Each country has committed to ensuring that the competitive advantages of the continent are maintained and enhanced.

By demonstrating that increased trade drives job creation and economic growth, Canada, Mexico and the United States have set a valuable example globally and have built a solid foundation upon which North American competitiveness can continue to be enhanced to the benefit of all citizens.

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Cities like Ann Arbor Can Change the World

September 11, 2013

Michael Masserman is the Executive Director for Export Policy, Promotion & Strategy at the International Trade Administration and is also a proud alumnus of the University of Michigan – #goblue.

There’s excitement in the air on campuses in towns like Huntsville, Ala.; Boulder, Colo.; Bloomington, Ind.; and Ann Arbor, Mich., because college football season has kicked off.

But those cities have more in common than just enthusiasm for college football; they’re all among the metropolitan areas that surpassed the $1 billion mark in goods exports last year.

That’s right, $1 billion.

Ann Arbor, a city that has generated more than $1 billion in annual exports for a number of years and home to the University of Michigan, is harnessing its innovative spirit to expand globally in sectors from transportation equipment to electronics products.

It’s home to companies like Mechanical Simulation Corporation, which produces software to simulate the dynamic response of vehicles to inputs from the driver and environmental conditions. The company is the result of early research at the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute. They’re now selling their products to manufacturers and suppliers from Sao Paulo to Seoul.

Ann Arbor has been able to attract investment from overseas firms like Toyota and Hyundai, which now have their U.S. research and development facilities in the region. The area is also home to Liebherr-Aerospace, a German company that, among other things, re-builds engines for Embraer, a Brazilian aerospace company.

With Ann Arbor linking business between Munich and Rio de Janeiro, it is building a foundation for sustainable economic growth here and abroad. These city-to-city connections are how global commerce is now done. Instead of trading spices and coffee, the 21st century “silk road” is about cross-border data flows, global supply chains, and accessing products and services via smartphones, where you can now buy your coffee and spices from anywhere in the world at the click of a button.

The universities in these communities played a huge role in these export numbers even though services exports like education aren’t included in this number. Foreign students studying in the United States accounted for nearly $23 billion in exports nationwide in 2012.

Universities like Michigan, which has more than 6,300 international students, are forging the next generation of globally minded U.S. business owners. They also expose foreign students to American culture and business practices. Some of these students could return to their home country and become the next big investors in the United States. Understanding the relationship between exports and investment in the United States is the holistic approach we need for our cities – and our nation – to succeed.

Every U.S. city has the opportunity to engage in the global marketplace, and we’re proud to partner with the Brookings Institution on the Metropolitan Export Initiative to support globally minded cities. Local leaders just have to be deliberate and strategic about prospects, seize the moment at hand, and get in the game. 

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State Economies Get Boost from Exports

August 8, 2013

Calynn Jenkins is an intern in the International Trade Administration’s Office of Public Affairs. She is studying political science at American University. 

Seventeen states set export records in the first half of 2013, including Connecticut, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

Seventeen states set export records in the first half of 2013, including Connecticut, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

If your business is not exporting, you may be missing out on key opportunities to expand your business and increase your bottom line.

New data released from the International Trade Administration (ITA) on state exports from the first six months of 2013 shows U.S. merchandise exports totaled a record $781 billion. Oklahoma, Georgia, and North Carolina are among 17 states that reached record highs in merchandise exports.

Goods exports from Texas grew the most in dollar terms, rising from $4.3 billion to $134.4 billion. Washington (up $3.8 billion), New York (up $2.8 billion), Kentucky (up $1.4 billion), and Louisiana ($960 million) were the next largest.

Exports are an important driver of U.S. economic growth. Total merchandise exports from all 50 states contributed to a record $2.2 trillion in goods and services exports in 2012, which supported nearly 10 million jobs. According to new data from the first half of 2013, U.S. exports are on track for another record year.

The Obama administration has made exports a national priority, launching the National Export Initiative (NEI) in 2010 to support American jobs. Helping U.S. companies become more competitive internationally is a critical step to shaping an American economy built to last. The Department of Commerce and ITA are committed to continuing the trend of export growth.

More information about individual state contribution to national exports is available through the International Trade Administration’s Office of Trade and Industry Information web page.

If your business is ready to take advantage of opportunities overseas, ITA is here to support. We helped U.S. businesses achieve more than 14,000 export successes in 2012. Visit your local Export Assistance Center today.

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Metro Exports Continue to Rise in 2012

July 11, 2013

Natalie Soroka is an economist in the Office of Trade and Industry Information within the International Trade Administration where she focuses on international trade statistics and trends.

Five metro areas achieved more than $50 billion in 2012 exports.

Five metro areas achieved more than $50 billion in 2012 exports and ten surpassed $25 billion.

After hitting new highs in 2011, exports from U.S. metropolitan areas continued to increase in 2012, with 170 of the 370 metro areas with available data reporting record-high merchandise exports.

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX topped the list as the largest metro exporter in 2012, shipping $110.3 billion of goods abroad.

Overall, many areas saw continued growth in 2012, with exports increasing in 220 metro areas from the previous year.

The Seattle, WA area saw the highest dollar growth in 2012, up $9.2 billion from 2011. Other areas showing high dollar growth included:

  • Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI (up $6.0 billion),
  • Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX (up $5.8 billion),
  • Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (up $4.7 billion),
  • and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (up $4.4 billion).

While large areas like Houston, New York and Los Angeles contribute greatly to the value of exports from metropolitan areas sent around the world, exports are an important economic driver in smaller markets, too. In 2012, 153 small metro areas exported more than $1 billion of goods. Of these metros, exports from Bloomington, IN exceeded $1 billion for the first time in 2012.

Viewing exports from the metropolitan perspective is important, as these are concentrated areas for industries and economic activity. In 2011, 22 metropolitan areas represented more than 40 percent of their state’s total merchandise export activity.

One such area in 2012 was Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL, whose $47.9 billion in exports accounted for 69 percent of Florida’s total goods exports that year. Aerospace products and parts accounted for the largest share of Miami’s exports, amounting to $4.8 billion in 2012. Other top export categories from Miami that year were computer and peripheral equipment ($4.1 billion) and communications equipment ($3.5 billion).

Of the metro areas in Florida where data is available, 11 MSAs reported increased exports in 2012, led by increases in Miami, Lakeland, and Orlando. On the local level, areas often benefit from geographic proximity and economic or cultural ties to a particular country or region. In fact, Latin American partners dominate Miami’s exports.  Miami exported $18.3 billion of goods to South American markets in 2012, led by Miami’s top market: Venezuela ($5.6 billion). Other top Miami markets in 2012 were Colombia ($2.8 billion), Brazil ($2.6 billion), Mexico ($2.1 billion), and Chile ($2.0 billion).

Miami was also the top exporter to the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) region in 2012, exporting nearly $5.0 billion to this market in 2012, more than a quarter of which (27 percent) went to the Dominican Republic. Miami actually exported more to the six CAFTA members than it did to either the EU or our NAFTA partners.

While it’s too early to determine any effect from the new free trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, in 2012 Miami was the second largest metro exporter to both of these regions, indicating that it stands to benefit from increased trade with these markets in the future.

This data displays the importance exports are to not only our national economy, but to local economies throughout the country. Exports strengthen local economies and create millions of jobs.

In 2012, exporters reached an all-time record of $2.2 trillion in U.S. exports, supporting 9.8 million jobs. The Department of Commerce has collaborated with the Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program in order to create the Metropolitan Export Initiative. This initiative’s goal is to promote exports and investments in metropolitan regions through localized export plans.

Beginning with the release of 2012 data, information on exports by county and 4-digit NAICS industry code are available for the top 50 U.S. metro areas.

Visit ITA’s Metropolitan Export Series homepage for more information on metropolitan area exports, including data, fact sheets for the top 50 exporting MSAs in 2012, an overview of U.S. Metropolitan Area Exports, and the U.S. Trade Overview with new regional spotlights.

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Promoting U.S. Exports of Environmental Technology

May 31, 2013

On the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) blog, Marc Lemmond highlights the work EPA has done to promote exports of U.S. environmental technologies.

The environmental technology sector is a huge contributor to the American economy. It had an estimated revenue of $312 billion in 2012, employing 1.7 million Americans.

Another important note: promoting exports of environmental technology promotes environmental stewardship around the world. EPA partners with several federal agencies on its Trade and Economics Program to promote the trade and environment agenda globally.

This is important work, helping support the American economy and proliferating technology that helps preserve the world around us.

You can read more on the EPA’s blog, “It’s Our Environment.”

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U.S. Exporters Reach Record High in 2011

May 13, 2013

Natalie Soroka is an economist in the Office of Trade and Industry Information within the International Trade Administration where she focuses on international trade statistics and trends.

Small- and Medium-sized enterprises produce more than 50 percent of known exports in five states. The national average is for such businesses to produce 33.3 percent of known exports for each state.

In five states, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) produce more than 50 percent of known exports for the state.

This month the International Trade Administration released its overview report on U.S. Exporting Companies in 2011. This overview is based on the Census Bureau’s Profile of U.S. Importing and Exporting Companies, 2010-2011.

This report, a joint project between Census and the International Trade Administration (ITA), details the characteristics of U.S. merchandise trading companies in 2010 and 2011, including information on company size, industry, geographic composition, and top export markets.

The report shows some interesting data and helps show how services like those offered at ITA can help Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) begin exporting or increase their exports. Businesses of any size can contact their nearest Export Assistance Center to find out how we can help.

In 2011, more than 300,000 U.S. companies exported goods, an increase of more than 8,200 since the previous year and up by more than 25,600 companies since the beginning of the National Export Initiative (NEI) in 2009.

Manufacturers accounted for the largest portion of known export value (that is, export transactions that can be linked to a specific company), much of it from large firms. However, when you look at the number of exporters, manufacturing firms only account for about a quarter of U.S. exporters, with smaller and medium-sized firms accounting for many of the non-manufacturing companies.

In fact, SMEs, which have fewer than 500 employees, accounted for 98 percent of U.S. exporters in 2011.

With regard to markets, exporters largely ship goods to markets in North America (namely, NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico), with 43 percent of exporters shipping merchandise to this region.

The number of companies exporting to the Pacific Rim region has also shown significant growth in recent years, up by more than 12,000 since 2009, nearly all of which were SMEs. Among the top 25 U.S. export markets in 2011, the number of exporters to Australia showed the highest increase, up by nearly 2,700 exporters since 2010.

SMEs account for a third of goods exports on average, but in markets like Switzerland, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, India, and Israel, SMEs account for more than 40 percent of known U.S. exports.

On a state level, California reported the most identified exporters in 2011, at more than 75,000, followed by Florida, New York, Texas, and Illinois. SMEs play an important role in many states’ exports, in particular accounting for more than half of goods exports from five states, which includes the states of New York and Florida, both among the top state exporters.

Overall, SMEs in particular would benefit from further expanding into new markets. In 2011, more than half (59 percent) of SMEs exported to a single foreign market. In contrast, 55 percent of large companies exported to five or more countries.

Compared with big companies, most SMEs do not possess offshore business affiliates that can be used to circumvent trade barriers and gain market access.

That’s why U.S. government initiatives to open foreign markets can especially benefit smaller U.S. exporters. If your SME needs help gaining access to foreign markets, you can contact your nearest Export Assistance Center to find out how we can help your business, regardless of its size.

For more information, read the full overview.

(This post was updated to correct an error in the first paragraph.)

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Building Exports in the Construction Industry

April 24, 2013

Kit Rudd is the Senior International Trade Specialist responsible for Construction Machinery in the International Trade Administration’s Office of Transportation and Machinery.

When it comes to export The U.S. pavilion at the baum 2013 trade show.growth, U.S. manufacturers of construction machinery and related equipment are building something special.

With more than $47 billion in exports in 2012, and 89 percent growth since 2009,  the sector is strongly supporting President Obama’s National Export Initiative goal of doubling American exports by the end of 2014.

Infrastructure growth around the world is driving demand for construction machinery and related equipment. When it comes to trade promotion in this field, there are few better venues than bauma 2013, the International Trade Fair for Construction Machinery, Building Material Machines, Mining Machines, Construction Vehicles, and Construction Equipment.

Held April 15-21, in Munich, Germany, this year’s event attracted more than 3,200 exhibitors, including 288 from the United States. The International Trade Administration (ITA) was there to support U.S. exhibitors, counseling more than 30 U.S. companies on how ITA can help them compete and succeed globally.

Senior International Trade Specialist Kit Rudd of the Manufacturing and Services (MAS) Machinery Team, and Commercial Service (CS) Specialists Bettina Capurro of Munich and Marino Konno of São Paulo represented ITA, working with American companies and arranging presentations on the construction markets in Brazil and Chile.

If your business is new-to-market, new-to-export, or even if you’re already a successful exporter, ITA can help you build a foundation and grow your business. Visit export.gov to get started.

(note: 2012 trade data is based on North American Industry Classification System [NAICS] codes 333120 [Construction Machinery]; 333131 [Mining Machinery and Equipment]; 333618 [Other Engine equipment]; 333995 [Fluid Power Cylinders and Actuators]; and 333996 [Fluid Power Pumps and Motors])

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