Posts Tagged ‘travel forecast’

h1

Efforts to Make the U.S. the Number One Tourist Destination

December 4, 2012

This post contains external links. Please review our external linking policy.

Marc Buergi is a fellow in the International Trade Administration’s Office of Public Affairs, and is an International Affairs graduate student at the George Washington University.

Many of us will be traveling during the upcoming holiday season.

Visiting family, friends and discovering new places is enjoyable. So is knowing that every time we travel we are also aiding our economy: travel expenditures help support the 7.5 million Americans employed in the U.S. travel and tourism industry.

Not only is the industry benefiting from domestic travelers like ourselves, but as more and more people visit our country from abroad, international visitor spending is becoming a growing share of the industry’s success in recent years. In fact, over 66 million tourists and travelers are expected to come to the U.S. this year alone, which would represent an increase of 6 percent over last year’s figures.

The good news is that upward trend is likely to continue: travel and tourism is expected to grow by 3.6 to 4.3 percent each year for the next five years according to a new report released this week.

The biggest growth markets are Asia and South America. The number of Chinese visitors alone is expected to increase by 259 percent in the next five years, while the number of Brazilian tourists is projected to swell by 83 percent.

The new travel forecast underscores the importance of international tourism to the U.S. economy, and the exponential opportunities these favorable trends can bring. That is why the President has set out a goal to make the United States the number one tourism destination worldwide.

In May 2012, the U.S. Commerce Department and the Department of the Interior presented the National Travel and Tourism Strategy to the President which is our roadmap to accomplish this ambitious goal. The Strategy lays out concrete steps which will be taken to make the U.S. even more attractive for international visitors, for instance travel promotion campaigns in key markets, improvements in the visa waiver program, and in the security procedures at U.S. airports.

The strategy is already bearing fruit. For example, last month Taiwan was included into the U.S. visa waiver program. The citizens of that country will now be able to visit the U.S. for up to 90 days without a visa – and many Taiwanese will use that opportunity.

The International Trade Administration (ITA) is at the forefront of the government’s efforts to implement the Strategy. ITA is continuing to supply the travel and tourism industry with important data, including international arrivals to the United States, the forecast of international travel to America for more than 30 countries, and estimates of the total impact of travel and tourism on the economy, among other services.

Earlier this month, Acting Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade Kenneth Hyatt highlighted these efforts at a Washington Post Travel and Tourism Forum where he emphasized the need to consider the customer experience.

Millions of people from abroad would love to visit our county – the U.S. government is making sure that as many of them as possible actually choose the U.S. as their holiday destination.

h1

Travel Forecast Projects Increase in International Visitors between Four and Five Percent by 2016

April 25, 2012

This post contains external links. Please review our external linking policy.

Mark Brown is a Senior Market Research Analyst with the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries in the Manufacturing and Services division of the International Trade Administration

This week is a pretty exciting time for the travel and tourism industry. The U.S. Travel Association’s annual International Pow Wow trade show event, is taking place in Los Angeles and was the venue for Commerce Secretary John Bryson to release the 2012-2016 travel forecast. The U.S. Department of Commerce produces a semi-annual travel forecast, one in the spring to coincide with the Pow Wow event, and one in the fall to coincide with an annual travel industry marketing outlook event.

Our latest forecast shows that international traveler volume to the United States is expected to build on the two consecutive visitor volume records set in 2010 and 2011 and grow at a four percent to five percent rate from 2012 through 2016.

Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Francisco Sanchez cuts the ribbon to open Pow Wow 2012 with Travel and Tourism officials

Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Francisco Sanchez cuts the ribbon to open Pow Wow 2012 with Travel and Tourism officials

When compared to the fall 2011 forecast, the spring 2012 forecast represents a further downward revision in visitor volume growth, and the fall had been revised downward compared to the spring 2011 forecast. These revisions reflect several factors, including 2011’s solid, but below-forecast performance, and the International Monetary Fund’s revision of economic conditions for many of the U.S. top visitor origin markets.

That’s the bad news. But the good news is that the forecast still projects solid growth in visitor volume over the 2012 to 2016 period…and at a level higher than the United Nations World Tourism Organization’s forecast for the world, which is between 3.5 percent and 3.8 percent annual growth over this period.

The current forecast for the USA also does not yet factor in the potential impact from the Travel Promotion Act of 2009 legislation, which was signed into law in March 2010. The law established the non-profit Corporation for Travel Promotion, now known as BrandUSA, and a funding mechanism to market the USA as a premier travel destination. BrandUSA just unveiled their marketing plan at the Los Angeles Pow Wow event. Their impact on travel to the USA would be above and beyond the Department’s forecast levels.

If the forecast holds true, visitor volume would grow from 62.3 million in 2011 to reach 65.4 million in 2012 and 76.6 million by 2016. This translates into total growth of 14.4 million additional visitors in 2016 compared to 2011, growth of 23% versus the 2011 level, and a compounded annual growth rate of 4.2 percent.

Related: TAKE-OFF! (traveling, that is) New Travel Indicators Website Launched
International Visitors to the U.S. Jumped 9 Percent in February 2012

Tourists from all world regions are forecast to grow over the five-year period, ranging from a low for the Caribbean (+9 percent), to a high for Asia (+49 percent), South America (+47 percent), and Africa (+47 percent). All but three of the top-40 visitor origin countries are forecast to grow from 2011 through 2016. Countries with the largest total growth percentages include China (+198 percent), Brazil (+70 percent), Argentina (+46 percent), Australia (+45 percent), Korea (+35 percent), and Venezuela (+35 percent).

It’s important to monitor the fast-growing markets, but what matters more are the largest-growth markets. The North America world region is forecast to account for the largest proportion of the total visitor growth of 14 million visitors (42 percent). Asia (25 percent), Western Europe (11 percent), and South America (13 percent) are expected to account for the bulk of the remaining 58 percent of total growth in visitor volume forecast in 2016 compared to 2011 actual volume.

The countries contributing the most to total growth by 2016 are Canada (additional 4.47 million visitors), China (2.16 additional visitors), Mexico (1.54 million additional visitors, Brazil (1.06 million additional visitors), and Australia (463 thousand additional visitors).

To learn more about the spring 2012 Travel and Tourism Forecast, visit www.trade.gov. To learn more about Commerce’s efforts to increase travel to the U.S., visit www.commerce.gov.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 435 other followers