U.S. Department of Commerce Releases New Travel Forecast

May 25, 2011

Mark Brown is an economist in the International Trade Administration’s Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.  He serves as the program manager for the Travel Forecast program.

Continued Strong Growth Expected in International Travel to the United States 2011-2016

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) projects international travel to the United States will continue experiencing strong growth through 2016.

Visitor volume is expected to increase 7 percent in 2011 and reach 64 million visitors who stay one or more nights in the United States.  This growth would build on the 9 percent increase in arrivals in 2010, which resulted in a record 59.7 million visitors.

According to the current forecast, the United States would see 6 percent to 8 percent annual growth rates in visitor volume over the 2012-2016 time frame.  By 2016 this growth would produce 89 million visitors, a 49 percent increase and an additional 29 million visitors compared to 2010.

Countries with the largest forecasted total growth percentages by 2016 are China (+232%), South Korea (+200%), Brazil (+150%), Russian Federation (+139%), and India (+94%).

The U.S. travel forecast was prepared by staff in the Department of Commerce/Office of Travel & Tourism Industries using economic / demographic / social factors, Commerce historical visitation trends, input from the DOC Commercial Service staff abroad, and other sources.

For more information on the OTTI Travel Forecast, including data tables for the world regions, data tables for the top 40 visitor origin countries, and justification for each country forecast, including positive and negative factors that might influence travel from each country to the United States, please visit:

Travel and tourism is the largest services export industry for the United States and has produced a trade surplus since 1989.  For official information on international travel to the United States, please visit:

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