New Year, New Monitor: ITA Tool Tracks Global Aluminum Trade

January 10, 2023

Hugh Smachlo is an Import Policy Analyst in the Enforcement and Compliance Industry Monitoring and Analysis Unit

Aluminum is a hot trade topic to watch in 2023. A new tool is now available to help industry analysts track data and trends for the largest aluminum importing and exporting countries. This week, ITA released the Global Aluminum Trade Monitor (GATM), the first publicly available data visualization tool for comparative analysis that provides insight into the global aluminum industry and its impacts on U.S. producers and importers.

Aluminum smelter pouring molten hot product

Since 2001, the number of primary (non-recycling) aluminum smelters in the United States has dwindled from 23 to 5. Primary aluminum smelters use unrecycled, raw material to make high-purity aluminum used in nearly every aluminum product, including cars, infrastructure, aerospace, packaging, and consumer goods. They are a critical link in many of these supply chains.

A drastic reduction in the number of American aluminum smelters could erroneously indicate that the U.S. demand for aluminum has dropped, or that the U.S. aluminum industry has suffered a dearth of investment; however, neither is the case. Since 2013, the U.S. aluminum industry has invested more than $7 billion in domestic manufacturing, and global aluminum demand has spiked as a result of climbing interest in recyclable and lightweight materials like aluminum.

The newly released GATM dashboard sheds light on this issue by indicating where there is demand for aluminum. Among its thousands of customizable charts, its “Top Partner Countries” comparison feature allows users to see aluminum import or export flows to or from a selected country. While globally China’s share of aluminum production increased from 12% to 60% from 2012 to 2021, the GATM comparison tool shows that its aluminum exports were concentrated in five countries: the United States, Vietnam, South Korea, Mexico, and Thailand. GATM reveals the ripple effects of China’s voluminous global exports on the U.S. aluminum industry, which, paired with an increase in unfair trade practices, caused the U.S. aluminum industry to seek trade remedies.

This chart shows two associated line graphs: one for annual data from 2012 to 2021 and one for YTD (October) data from 2018 to 2022. In each graph, the top five export markets for Chinese aluminum are shown for the relevant time period: South Korea, Mexico, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam. For annual data, the general trend shows Chinese exports to South Korea, Thailand, and Mexico increasing over time, with the exception of 2012-2014 for Mexico, where Chinese exports to Mexico declined. With respect to annual data for Chinese exports to Vietnam and the United States, the trend line generally spikes between 2014 and 2018 but otherwise follows the general upward trend in Chinese exports to other countries. For YTD data, the trend line for Chinese exports to all five countries generally follows a v shape with the lowest overall exports in YTD October 2020 and highest exports in 2022, with the exception of Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam between YTD October 2018 and 2019 where Chinese exports to those countries increased. — *Figure 1.* On the left, annual data from 2012 to 2021 of China exports to selected partner countries on all aluminum products in metric tons. On the right, one for year to date (October) data from 2018 to 2022. In each graph, the top five export markets for Chinese aluminum are shown for the relevant time period: South Korea, Mexico, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam.

In 2021, based on requests from the domestic aluminum industry and following rigorous investigations, Commerce put in place antidumping and/or countervailing duty (AD/CVD) orders on common alloy aluminum sheet (CAAS) from 16 countries, and AD/CVD orders on aluminum foil (foil) from five countries. These trade remedies build upon the already existing AD and/or CVD orders on CAAS and foil from China and give the U.S. industry the opportunity to compete on a level playing field against unfair foreign pricing and subsidization.

GATM visualizations also provide a glimpse into another region’s rippling impact on the U.S. aluminum industry. Since 2012, the Middle East has emerged as a major aluminum-producing region due to an abundant supply of low energy costs and efforts there to diversify national economies. For example, on the first tab titled “GATM,” users can see that United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman’s total exports to the U.S. increased 190% between 2012 and 2018.

This figure shows two associated line graphs: one for annual data from 2012 to 2021 and one for YTD (October) data from 2018 to 2022. In each graph, trend lines depict the volume of imports into the United States from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman (in order from highest to lowest volumes). For annual data, the U.S. imports from all three countries generally increased from 2015 through 2017, and then generally leveled off and decreased before 2021, however higher than the original 2015 import volumes. For YTD October data, the U.S. imports from all three countries generally decrease from YTD October 2018 through YTD October 2020 and generally increase by YTD October 2022. — *Figure 2.* These graphs depict U.S. imports from selected countries of all aluminum products in metric tons. On the left, annual data from 2012 to 2021. On the right, year to date (October) data from 2018 to 2022. In each graph, trend lines depict the volume of imports into the United States from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman (in order from highest to lowest volumes).

These two images, amongst the thousands of publicly available and customizable charts in the GATM, provide necessary context for understanding global aluminum trade flows and their impact on the U.S. industry. Furthermore, they help to explain, in part, the status of the U.S. as a net importer of aluminum products for each of the seven standard subcategories: bars, rods, and profiles; foil; pipes and tubes; plates, sheets, and strip; tube or pipe fittings; unwrought; and wire.

Ensuring the aluminum industry has the data it needs, the GATM comes at a critical moment for the United States and for our aluminum industry and workers. The domestic aluminum industry directly employs 164,000 American workers and indirectly supports an additional 470,000 workers, accounting for $73 billion dollars in U.S. economic output.

This is one of many tools that ITA provides U.S. companies to make informed decisions based on solid information about global markets.

For additional information, please e-mail aluminum.license@trade.gov.

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